How Global Fertility Trends are Reshaping the World

India’s total fertility rate has seen a remarkable decline over the past seven decades, plummeting from 6.18 children per woman in 1950 to just 1.91 in 2021. This sharp drop is part of a global trend, with the worldwide fertility rate decreasing from 4.84 in 1950 to 2.23 in 2021. However, the implications of this demographic shift are far-reaching and could result in a “demographically divided world,” according to a recent study published in The Lancet journal.

According to a study in 2021, India’s total fertility rate may further drop to 1.3 by 2050 and an astonishingly low 1.04 by 2100. For a population to remain stable, a fertility rate of 2.1 children per woman is required, known as the replacement level. When the fertility rate falls below this level, populations begin to shrink.

This trend is not unique to India; the study suggests that by 2050, fertility rates in three-quarters of all countries will not be high enough to support population growth. In fact, the researchers predict that by 2100, 198 out of the 204 countries and territories included in the study will have fertility rates below the replacement level.

Asymmetric Global Demographics

One of the most striking findings of the study is the emergence of a demographic divide across the globe. In 1950, one-third of global live births occurred in Southeast Asia, East Asia, and Oceania. However, this concentration has now shifted to the sub-Saharan African region, which, after 2011, accounted for the largest share of live births – increasing from 8 percent in 1950 to nearly 30 percent by 2021.

This region’s total fertility rate declined less sharply than other regions, dropping from 6.94 in 1950 to 4.29 in 2021. The study predicts that by 2100, one out of every two children born will be born in sub-Saharan Africa alone.

Challenges for High- and Low-Income Nations

This change in the distribution of live births will result in a “demographically divided world,” according to the study. High-income nations will have to deal with the effects of an aging population and a shrinking workforce, while low-income areas will struggle with high birth rates and resource constraints.

In high-income countries, the plummeting fertility rate may result in an aging population, burdening national health insurance, social security programs, and healthcare infrastructure. These countries may also face labor shortages, which could have significant economic implications.

On the other hand, more live births in low-income nations may jeopardize the security of food, water, and other resources, making the reduction in child mortality even more challenging. The study indicates that political instability and security difficulties could occur in these sensitive areas.

The Reasons Behind the Decline

The study attributes the fall in fertility rates to two primary factors: increased access to education for women and the availability of modern contraceptives. These factors have the potential to accelerate fertility reductions and lower birth rates, especially in high-fertility countries.

The researchers suggest that improving access to education and contraceptives could be an effective way to control population growth in low-income countries, which are predicted to have higher total fertility rates in the future.

A Divided Future

While the declining fertility rates might appear as a positive signal for the environment, the uneven concentration of live births can lead to tense situations across the globe, as the study warns.

The two nations projected to have the lowest predicted fertility rates in 2050 are Puerto Rico (0.84) and South Korea (0.82). South Korea’s rate is predicted to remain unchanged from 0.82 in 2021 until 2100. Bhutan (0.69) and Maldives (0.77) are predicted to have the lowest total fertility rates in 2100.

In contrast, the study predicts that the proportion of live births in low-income areas worldwide would almost quadruple from 18 percent in 2021 to 35 percent in 2100. This demographic divide could exacerbate existing economic and social disparities between developed and developing nations.

The Time is Now to Get Ahead of Contrasting Population Trajectories

The stark demographic divides projected by this study demand a united, global response to tackle the resulting challenges. Wealthy nations must brace themselves for the economic and societal ramifications of rapidly aging populations and shrinking workforces. Simultaneously, impoverished countries will require assistance in grappling with strained resources and limited access to education and healthcare amid persistently high birth rates.

The overarching objective must be establishing a balanced, sustainable level of population growth worldwide that safeguards the wellbeing of people both today and in the years to come. Promoting gender equality, strengthening educational opportunities, and enhancing reproductive health services are crucial steps towards realizing a more equitable, prosperous future for all of humanity across the globe. Through collaborative, multi-faceted efforts, we can mitigate the concerning demographic asymmetries taking shape.